Global cases of the coronavirus are projected to rise slowly in the coming months and reach 18.7 million per day by February.
According to a report from the University of Washington, the daily average is currently around 16.7 million people.
That’s a lot less than last winter, when the Omicron variant pushed the estimated peak daily average to about 80 million — and that increase isn’t expected to lead to a significant increase in deaths either.
The University Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) predicts that the average number of deaths will rise from about 1,660 to 2,748 by February 1. In contrast, in January 2022 there were more than 11 million deaths daily.
CORONAVIRUS INFECTION COVID U.S. infections are projected to rise by a third to more than a million a day over the same period, driven by factors such as more people staying indoors during the winter.
But the surge in Germany has already peaked, according to the study’s authors, who expect the number of cases there to drop by more than a third to around 190,000.
The IHME suggests that the recent increase in cases and hospitalizations in Germany may be linked to the Omicron BQ.1 or BQ.1.1 subvariants, and that it may spread to other parts of Europe in the coming weeks.
According to the analysis, another Omicron sub-variant called XBB is also seeing a surge in adoption in Singapore.
Researchers at the University of Washington say this option is more transferable but less severe.
They add that the threat from XBB is expected to be reduced by the fact that people previously infected with the BA.5 Omicron subvariant are likely to have immunity to it.
In the UK, the latest figures released last week showed cases continues to rise but may be nearing a peak.
A weekly survey by the Office for National Statistics showed that around two million people in the UK contracted the virus in the week ending October 10.
That’s about every 30 people and an increase of 15.4% compared to the previous week.
But there have been hints that the spread is starting to slow in many parts of England – which accounts for the bulk of the cases.
The UK’s health agency is still urging people over the age of 50 to get a repeat revacaster because they are at greater risk of serious illness if infected.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-report-predicts-how-many-daily-cases-there-will-be-by-february-12730396