It is believed that announcements about the future of the pension triple lock and social assistance reform for adults are inevitable if the rumors that are spread are true and that they may appear as early as next week.

Some reports say that Chancellor Rishi Sunak will announce the abolition of the triple lock in a statement he is due to make on September 7, a decision that is likely to be highly controversial, especially among those in society who rely on their state. pension as the main source of income.

The abolition of the triple castle will also be a clear violation of the Conservative Party’s manifesto, which was published in the run-up to the last general election, in which the Conservatives promised to keep it at least during this parliamentary cycle.

However, the chancellor is under pressure to find cost savings to help pay the huge costs that the coronavirus pandemic has piled on public finances, and many see the abolition of the triple lock an easy target.

The triple-lock system guarantees an annual increase in the state pension of at least 2.5%, inflation or an increase in average wages, whichever is greater. The figure is calculated at the end of September each year, so it is expected that the announcement will be soon.

The issue has become even more relevant this year because it is almost certain that the matrix used will represent an increase in average wages, and some people predict it will be up to 8% if figures for this month are announced. This would mean a huge increase in the cost of the triple block, which the government would be forced to fund, and at a time when finances are already under severe pressure.

It seems that the Chancellor will suspend the triple block for this year and replace it with a “double”, which actually calculates the growth rate of the average salary.

The Treasury has already stated that it supports retirees and their need to receive a fair pension, and also says that any decisions it makes should also be fair to taxpayers in general.

And the dilemma arises – is he firmly holding on to the existing triple lock and manual retirees to reduce inflation this year, or is he driving, changing or even repealing the system while risking rejecting the “gray” vote the Conservatives are hoping for so strongly? No matter how much a penny has fallen, it will probably be a controversial decision!

Adult social assistance reforms

But this is not the only serious spending decision expected in the near future that will severely affect older people. The question of how to combat the rapidly rising costs of adult social services also needs to be addressed by the government.

Many of you who follow this story will be surprised to learn that more than 10 years have passed since the publication of the Dilnot report. It was a report commissioned by the government of the time to consider providing social assistance to adults in this country. He came to the conclusion that the system itself is not fit for purpose and requires more funding – both from individuals and the state.

Ten years have passed and nothing has changed – the system is still in disarray, and no government has been able to find a solution to this problem – a problem that simply will not go away.

But there are rumors again that next week Boris Johnson will announce tax increases that will go to pay for the reform of adult social assistance. He is expected to announce an increase in contributions to the National Insurance Fund, which will be used to finance necessary and long-overdue reforms.

If he does, like his chancellor, he will break the promise of the Conservative Party manifesto, this time a promise not to raise taxes. The 2019 manifesto stated that the Conservatives “promise not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT rates”.

So it looks like two manifesto promises need to be broken in a few days – just like buses – two come at once!

Rumors circulating that a pound increase of 1 pound, or 1%, will be announced, but some think it could be even higher – closer to 1.25% if the Treasury achieves its goal.

But is it fair?

Like the triple lock, such a policy is likely to be divisive, because the burden of funding tends to fall on the roughly 32 million people in the country who are employed – about 25 million of them actually pay national insurance, and it will be those who bear the tax burden.

However, those who work tend to be members of the younger generation, and the move potentially leaves the government open to claims that it “taxes the young to pay for the old”. This is likely to rekindle the generation gap, and many young people feel they are unfairly paying for wealthy retirees.

Look at this space – a week – it’s a long time in politics – so they say the next one can be very long as well as very difficult for the government!

Pensions triple lock and adult social care reform both in the spotlight

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