Labor intends to win decisively in the local elections in London in 2022, according to The last poll The Mile End Institute is in partnership with the YouGov survey organization.

Our survey of 1,232 adults from April 19 to 22 gives Labor a huge advantage of 27 points, suggesting that Thursday could be a very bad night for the Conservatives in the capital. In the poll, Labor is leading in both inner and outer London, among all social classes, as well as among white and BAME voters.

The 18-24-year-old Labor Party is ahead by 57 points, the 25-49-year-olds by 41 points, the 50-64-year-olds by 21 points. The only demographic that is less likely to vote for Labor than the Conservatives is over 65. In the last general election in the party, retirees were less successful, and this trend continues in this poll of Londoners.

It should be noted that major changes in the boundaries of the chambers ahead of these local elections it is difficult to predict what will happen in specific areas of London, while turnout in local elections of course low. But our poll certainly suggests that Conservative-controlled councils such as Wandsworth may be vulnerable, even if places like Westminster remain inaccessible to Labor.

The cost of living beats the price

Our poll shows that voters who supported the Liberal Democrats The 2019 general election may also go to work to punish conservatives in local battles for control of town halls. Greens are also doing well and they could surpass them Evaluation of 2018 in the capital.

Bad result for the Conservatives across the country, which is also implied, will almost certainly lead to an attempt by Tory MPs to remove Boris Johnson from the post of Prime Minister. However, it must be said that Labor has long dominated London, so the ruling party is unlikely to expect good results. For the last 20 years, Labor has generally performed well in the London election.

However, the poll shows that conservatives are experiencing unprecedented unpopularity in the capital. This may be the result of short-term factors such as anger party gate – a case in which government officials gathered at 10 Downing Street during the blockade.

Concerns about rising cost of living also seem to be valid. According to our poll, a significant number of voters in London are worried about how to heat their homes next winter. There are concerns about rising mortgage prices, rising food and petrol prices, and – for working parents – the astronomical cost of child care in the capital. Voters do not seem to believe that the government is doing enough to alleviate this pressure on household living standards, for example, by imposing an unexpected income tax on privatized energy companies.

In addition, these voters are experiencing pain from tax increases in April this year (including Growth of 1.25 percentage points in national insurance premiums to fund additional NHS capacity and social services). They are (not surprisingly) angry that people in public life can be legally avoid taxes. The upcoming local elections are taking place against the backdrop of the fact that the UK has the highest tax burden in more than 50 years.

A longer-term change?

However, the unpopularity of the Tories may also reflect a long-term rift between the Conservative Party and voters in London, indicating broader trends that are changing British policy. Demographically, London is now considered a Labor city with a significant concentration of young, more diverse, liberal voters. These people are often hostile to Brexit and classically left in their attitude to economic policy and redistribution.

On the other hand, the Conservatives in the last election enjoyed the support of older voters who occupied the so-called “red wall” in the north and middle of England. This trend reflects a new picture of polarization in UK politics.

Of course, we must remember that these elections to councils and regional bodies. What determines voters’ choices may be less related to national policies and macroeconomic trends than concerns about the quality of public services and the general physical condition of their immediate neighbors. A likely factor is also the overall level of municipal tax, which is set by each district in London. National politics is currently extremely feverish, but, as former U.S. House Speaker Tip O’Neill once said, “all politics is local.”

Author: Patrick Diamond – Professor of Public Policy at Queen Mary University of London

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