Labor is likely to advance on the main battlefields in local elections, but may struggle to win a significant number of new councils, according to a big new forecast of YouGov results for Sky News.
Tomorrow in the north of England Labor will move more slowly than in other countries local council electionsdespite the fact that Sir Keir Starmer put at the top of his agenda the return of the “red wall” lost in the 2019 general election.
In the YouGov project, the number of votes for the Conservatives is likely to decrease, but not all will necessarily go to Labor. They expect the Liberal Democrats and the Greens to take votes from both the Tories and Labor.
YouGov expects Labor to advance in London, where every council is running in the election, despite a very high baseline in 2018.
Elsewhere in the south, Labor has also made progress in 2018, but is less likely to win advice on the battlefield, while the transition from Tories to Labor in the north is expected to be less than elsewhere, YouGov said.
Overall, this means that Labor may face a potentially difficult picture after the vote count on Friday, gaining a potentially significant number of seats – experts estimate it could be in the hundreds – but a few general tips.
YouGov surveyed 5,026 people across England last week, allowing them to predict results in 16 key boards.
The model is careful in its projections. Five councils – two Tories, one Labor and two councils without general control – are labeled in the model as “too close to provoke”.
However, this points to some potentially significant changes in control in some key locations.
The YouGov model predicts that voters in Southampton and Vandsworth are “leaning towards” the expulsion of the Tories and the establishment of Labor-led administrations.
That would be a significant gain for Labor: Southampton is a heavily contested Tory Labor, while Wandsworth has been conservative since 1978 and has a low tax rate.
What tips to watch?
The Tories can no longer trust control of Barnett and Westminster after Thursday after YouGov found them both “too close to cause”.
Labor’s inability to take Barnett would be a disappointment after the party discussed its chances of winning a symbolically significant council in favor of the Conservatives during the last election in 2018, prompting the party to take antipathy to Jeremy Corbyn of the larger Jewish community.
Alarming to Labor, Kingston upon Hull, now controlled by Labor, is now labeled “too close to provoke” due to a tough call from the Liberal Democrats
According to YouGov, Croydon’s council is now “likely” to remain Labor, despite predictions that it will be threatened.
Hillingdon is likely to remain under Conservative control despite Labor achievements.
In the north, the councils of Bolton, Uiral and Kirklis seem to be left without general control, with a strong independent presence and a more stubborn Conservative vote hindering Labor progress.
Looking elsewhere in the north, YouGov believes Labor has a chance to hold on to a small majority in Berry and Calderdale, both of whom are “leaning Labor”.
In the south, YouGov expects Milton Keynes to remain firmly out of control (NOC), while ultra-marginal Hastings is projected to “lean towards Labor”. Crowley and Worthing remain on the absolute edge of the knife.