The organization also estimates that in 2019, 58 percent of American women of childbearing age – about 40 million – lived in states hostile to the right to abortion. About 35 percent, 24 million women, lived in states that broadly support such rights.

The consequences of the expected decision of the Supreme Court will be primarily on those in the southern and midwestern states, which do not have the means to travel to other states or whose family or work situations would complicate such travel.

Calculations published last year The Gutmacher Institute, an abortion advocacy group and a research group, found that in the post-Caviar According to the scenario, “the average driving distance of a Mississippi woman aged 15-44 to get to the clinic will increase by 387%, from 78 miles to 380 miles each way.”

The impact of the impending Supreme Court decision will be immediate. The Conservative-led states have spent years preparing for this, passing so-called trigger laws that take effect at the time Caviar flips over. This means that tens of millions of pregnant women will lose access to abortion the moment the court rules if it is in line with the original draft majority opinion.

Restrictions on abortion rights are expected to have a disproportionate impact on low-income pregnant women who do not have the means to easily travel to more permitted states, and colored women.

Alita’s original draft conclusion is in response to a lawsuit filed against Mississippi that banned abortion after 15 weeks. The vast majority of pregnant people decide to have an abortion long before that. If the Mississippi became the new standard, it would have only a minor impact in the real world on the number of abortions taking place in the United States. But Alita’s original draft conclusion is much broader and is likely to lead to states banning almost all abortions.

Josh Gerstein contributed to this report.

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