Britain’s economy unexpectedly grew by 0.1% in November, raising hopes that the country had avoided recession at the end of last year.
December’s GDP figures would need to fall by around 0.5% for Q4 growth to be negative and the UK economy to technically enter recessionwhich is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
“To add to the growing optimism,” said Evening standardTesco and Marks & Spencer both recorded “strong Christmas trading figures”, suggesting the UK economy “may be showing more resilience than predicted amid the cost of living crisis”.
Britain “may have avoided recession for now, but it won’t feel like one for many,” wrote Larry Elliott, the magazine’s economics editor. Guardian. GDP numbers are “certainly volatile”, he said, so the UK “could still” fall into recession “with rising interest rates and tax rises in the coming months”.
Ruth Gregory, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients that “even if the economy is slightly better than expected in the fourth quarter, it will be stagnant at best” and “we still think the recession in soon”. the first half of 2023″.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt reacted cautiously to the latest figures, promising to “stick with the plan to halve inflation this year so we get the economy growing again”. Labour’s Rachel Reeves said: “Today’s results are another page in the book of failure that is the Tories’ record of growth.”