How NFL betting gains further acceptance and legalization across the country, access to futures betting represents one of the easiest ways to jump early on a reversal trend. With training camp set to begin and projected NFL win totals changing as the money comes in, here are some of our best 2022 NFL win total bets based on current projections.
2022 NFL win totals before training camp
The NFL’s free agency period caused a seismic shift around the NFL landscape. The league we saw last season is very different from the one we will see in the near future. With retirements, non-retirements, trades and signings, the NFL’s balance of power has shifted — so have NFL Odds. The NFL Draft further helped change the odds as roster holes were filled with some of the top prospects leaving college. However, this is a fairly balanced league, making it a challenge to get a win every Sunday.
Our good friends at DraftKings Sportsbook crunched the numbers and released their win total predictions for the 2022 NFL season. You’ll immediately notice that the 2022 NFL win total seems a little low. The Chiefs opened last season with a 12-game winning streak. This year, the Bills and Buccaneers lead the way with 11.5. Green Bay is only half a game back at 11 despite opening at 11.5. It has more to do with the parity in the league, which leads to closer games and well-rounded lineups.
Also, the AFC, especially the AFC West, is stacked. Not only does the list list nine AFC teams with a 9.0+ win total, but the AFC West will be a gauntlet as well, with the Chiefs (10.5), Broncos (10) and Chargers (10) projected to win in double figures . Also, the Raiders, now with Davante Adams and Chandler Jones, have 8.5 wins, which is the highest “downfield” mark of any division in football.
Before we spoil all the fun, here are the current 2022 NFL win totals as listed by DraftKings Sportsbook. Any numbers in parentheses indicate where the line opens to show movement.
AFC win total
Buffalo Bills – 11.5
Kansas City Chiefs – 10.5
Los Angeles Chargers – 10
Denver Broncos – 10
Cincinnati Bengals – 10
Tennessee Titans — 9 (was 9.5)
Baltimore Ravens – 9.5
Indianapolis Colts — 10 (was 9.5)
Miami Dolphins – 9
New England Patriots – 8.5
Las Vegas Raiders – 8.5
Pittsburgh Steelers — 7 (was 7.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars – 6.5
New York Jets – 5.5
Houston Texas – 4.5
DraftKings has removed the Cleveland Browns’ win totals, likely in anticipation of Deshaun Watson’s potential suspension. When Brown was originally released, he was 9.5 wins.
NFC Win Totals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 11.5
Green Bay Packers – 11
Los Angeles Rams – 10.5
Dallas Cowboys — 10 (was 10.5)
San Francisco 49ers – 10
Arizona Cardinals — 8.5 (was 9)
Philadelphia Eagles — 9.5 (was 8.5)
Minnesota Vikings – 9
New Orleans Saints – 8
Commanders of Washington — 8 (was 7.5)
New York Giants – 7
Detroit Lions – 6.5
Chicago Bears – 6.5
Carolina Panthers — 6.5 (was 6.0)
Seattle Seahawks – 5.5
Atlanta Falcons – 5
Best bets and predictions
Now that we’ve seen the NFL win totals for 2022, where does that count and who is best to exceed or fall short of their current win total projections?
Chicago will probably struggle to get 6.5 wins in 2022
If you look at SOS, then The Bears enter 2022 with one of the three easiest schedules. DraftKings’ projected winning total is only 6.5, but that could even be too high. The likely No. 4 seed in the NFC North will be hard-pressed to find games that favor them this year. Even games against the Lions project to be tough given the different trajectories of these teams.
Going forward, the Bears only hold a two-game advantage — both at home against the Texans and the Lions. Atlanta is listed as a pick, and the only games with a three-point or lower spread are TNF’s game against Washington (-1.5) and Week 18 against the Vikings (-1.5).
It would be one thing if it was a team that struggled but made significant changes. But outside of coaching and personnel changes, they didn’t. Justin Fields enters year two with Darnell Mooney as the WR1, who I’m a fan of, but one player doesn’t make the team. In fact, the Bears have arguably the worst roster in the NFL. I’ll be under the Bears’ current win total.
It’s time to rethink how we look at the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have been one of the most consistent teams in the NFL. So much so that Mike Tomlin has yet to have a losing season since becoming head coach in 2007. However, it’s not the same as Steelers fans know and love.
Ben Roethlisberger is gone, followed by Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett. Frankly, both are likely upgrades from where Big Ben was at the end of his career. But both are unproven. The offensive line is still a mess and will struggle to maintain a clean pocket. In 2022, Pittsburgh will once again rely heavily on defense.
The Steelers schedule also rude. Most likely, Pittsburgh is the third or fourth team in their division. Which they are may depend on Watson’s potential suspension. After six games against the Bengals, Ravens and Browns, Pittsburgh would be lucky to go 3-3. It doesn’t get any easier. They have four games each against the AFC East and NFC South, along with the Raiders, Colts and Eagles.
Assuming the Steelers can get to .500 in the division, they need to find five wins against the Bills, Patriots, Dolphins, Jets, Saints, Buccaneers, Panthers, ” Falcons, Colts, Eagles and Raiders. I can find three wins against the Jets, Panthers and Falcons. I’m having a hard time finding the other two, maybe outside of Miami. Yes, it’s betting against history and betting against Tomlin. However, this could be a dark season in Hein … I mean Acrisure Field.
Keep an eye out for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022
Philadelphia found its identity and got hot last season when it mattered. After going 6-2 in their last eight games, the Eagles cruised into the playoffs with a 9-8 record. What did they do this offseason? They fully committed to Jalen Hurts and drafted several guys who could start in week one.
Jordan Davies is a mountain of a man and their next Fletcher Cox. Nakobe Dean could prove to be a huge steal as a running injury has allowed him to slide into the third round (#83). They also added offensive line depth with center Cam Juergens, who Jason Kelce mostly picked up on his own. In free agency, they brought in LB Hassan Reddick and UR Zach Pascal.
To top it all off, the Eagles made a blockbuster move on draft day by trading up and signing AJ Brown from the Titans to a four-year contract. That gives Hurts three legitimate targets: Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, along with Pascal, who hails from Indianapolis. Add one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and there are very few holes on that depth chart.
While 9.5 wins is certainly not a small number, the NFC as a whole is weaker in 2022. They have two games against Washington and the Giants, as well as matchups against the Bears, Lions, Texans, Jaguars and Steelers. The Eagles, barring injuries, appear to have a better chance of winning the NFC East outright than their current win total projections suggest.
The stakes are all over the place for the Eagles this season; 90% of the tickets and 96% of the money went to the Eagles, pushing their overall win prediction from 8.5 to the current 9.5.
No team has won the NFC East since the Eagles won four straight between 2001 and 2004. If Dallas won last year, it would return to the Eagles in 2022 as the kings of the east.
Are the Detroit Lions ready to surprise some teams in 2022?
First of all, I can’t wait to see Dan Campbell on Hard Knocks. The number of catchphrases on the t-shirts is going to be ridiculous and I can buy every one of them. This is a team in transition, and while they won’t be competing in 2022, no kneecap is safe. Just look at how they finished last season. After the bye week (Week 9) — when Campbell took over — the Lions went 3-5-1. From Weeks 13-18, they were .500 at 3-3.
In 2022, the Lions ranked 28th in terms of win/loss against opponents, and their opponents have a combined record of 135-154 (.467) last season. In their non-division games, the Lions also get the Commanders, Jaguars and Russell Wilson without the Seahawks at home, as well as road games against the Jets, Giants and Panthers.
Throw in two games against the Bears, who I believe are fourth in the NFC North this year, and the Lions’ overall win projection of 6.5 might be on the low side. It may sound crazy, but I’m taking the Lions win as one of my best bets.
2022 NFL win totals: Predictions, odds, and best bets include the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions