The 2022 Indianapolis Colts are hoping their third quarterback in as many years will finally lead the franchise to the Super Bowl. The Colts traded Carson Wentz for veteran Matt Ryan after a disastrous two-game skid late in the 2021 season that cost the franchise a return to the playoffs. Expectations have changed with a more consistent Ryan and several other playmakers added to the roster.
We’ll take a look at the Colts current record projection, projected total winningsany intriguing prop bets related to the franchise and their odds of winning the division, conference and Super Bowl in 2023.
All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted and are correct as of July 21st at 12:00pm ET.
Indianapolis Colts record prediction for 2022
After the release of Art NFL Schedule, Caesars has provided odds and spreads for all 2022 Colts regular season games. Based on those numbers, the Colts are projected as nine-game favorites, five-game underdogs and three-game picks. If the season lives up to these projections, the Colts will finish with a 9-5-3 record after Week 18 of the 2022 season.
That would be a pretty amazing record, as no team has had two ties in the same season since overtime was introduced in 1974. Of course, the game of choice is not a predicted draw, but a game in which the favorite is not determined. These can be great opportunities for bettors.
The Colts only made a handful of moves last offseason, but they were impactful. General manager Chris Ballard ended the Wentz experiment after one season in which he posted respectable numbers. But it’s clear the game on the field was bigger as Wentz was a net positive until the final two weeks of the season. The Colts traded Wentz to Washington’s GM without a clear successor.
They lucked out with Ryan after the Atlanta Falcons won their pursuit of Deshaun Watson. Ryan is a much better fit in head coach Frank Reich’s system because of his ability to read defenses before the snap and his accuracy when targeting tightly covered receivers. Even at the age of 37, Ryan is an excellent game manager.
Indianapolis has also wisely bolstered its defense with veteran cornerback Stephon Gilmore and linebacker Yannick Ngakue. Both will increase to important and necessary positions in 2022. Overall, between free agency and the draft, I like what the Colts did.
The AFC South is the worst division in the conference, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be a cakewalk for the Colts. 11 of their 17 games have been spread by 3 points or less per side. That means the Colts need to be efficient in winning matchups or the Tennessee Titans could have an edge in the division race.
Colts odds, picks and props
We now have the weekly predictions for the Colts. Let’s take a look at their season, division, conference and Super Bowl winning ratios.
- Colts win total: 10 (Over -105, Under -115)
- Colts to make the playoffs: Yes -175
- AFC South winner: -125
- AFC Winner: +1200
- Super Bowl Winner: +2200
The odds have determined a cautious approach to AFC South in 2022. There is certainly respect for the Titans built into the Colts’ win total and division odds. That’s fair considering the Titans can win the South if Derrick Henry stays healthy and Ryan Tannehill plays at his 2020 level.
However, this is the only way for Tennessee to be in the mix if the Colts stay healthy. Indianapolis was a top-10 offensive and defensive team last year and improved at their most needed positions. Their shocking loss in Week 18 to the Jacksonville Jaguars ended their season early.
Things will be different in 2022 as long as Jonathan Taylor is healthy. The Colts played inconsistently at three of the most critical positions in football: quarterback, cornerback and fullback. At least two of these positions have been significantly strengthened.
While I like the Colts ability to win the division, they also have a noticeable ceiling with Ryan and a lack of taller receivers and quarterbacks. Ryan is a good performer, but he would be the fourth-best quarterback in the AFC North and the fifth-best in the AFC West. This will be a challenge in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Colts MVP odds and player stats
The MVP and prop offers for Colts players are huge. They have clear stars to rely on, and we can rely on a track record of performance and usage to make informed decisions. We must avoid projecting Ryan’s high volume of past usage into a conservative scheme.
The Colts don’t have many playmakers, so we’re focusing on big names for our prop plays. That means Ryan, Taylor, and Michael Pittman Jr. are the only worthwhile investments on offense. The Colts also had some interesting defensive props.
- MVP
Matt Ryan +3500 - Offensive Player of the Year
Jonathan Taylor +1000 - Matt Ryan’s regular season passing yards
Over/Under 3900.5 (-110) - Jonathan Taylor in regular season yards
Over/Under 1450.5 (-115) - Bobby Okereke’s regular season tackle total
Over/Under 109.5 (-115) - Darius Leonard in total tackles during the regular season
Over/Under 137.5 (-115)
Last year’s offense is a stylistic return to the early 2010s. Everything went through Taylor. Taylor was outstanding, rushing for 1,811 yards and 18 scores.
While Taylor is still the focal point of the offense, the functionality of the unit will change. Instead of Taylor improving Wentz and creating opportunities, Ryan will be more of a catalyst for the unit. Ryan’s ability to pass will force defenses to respect the play-action threat because Ryan is a better structure-based QB than Wentz.
The young receiving corps will benefit the most from Ryan’s presence. Pittman will be a star with Ryan’s accuracy and timing. Rookie Alec Pierce could be the playmaker in the middle of the field that Ryan will target. Let’s hope we get a full season from Paris Campbell as well.
But none of this means that we should drastically change individual predictions, just that the team itself will run more smoothly.
The defensive props are fascinating. The odds essentially flipped the totals for Bobby Okereke and Darius Leonard in what could have been a play to familiarize the public with their roles and performance. Leonard is the more superstar of the two, but had 10 fewer tackles than his teammate and was 15 shy of that mark.
Colts 2022 pick
- Colts over 10 wins: -105
- Colts to win AFC South: -175
- Ryan is under 3,900.5 yards: -110
- Taylor over 1,450.5 yards: -115
- Okereke over 109.5 tackles: -115
- Leonard under 137.5 tackles: -115
With the help of the NFL the second simplest graph the Colts are in for an impressive regular season in 2022. Ryan has been a consistent force throughout his career, filling in for a consistently erratic on-field performer and off-field presence in Wentz. This change will help avoid several losses that cost the Colts in 2021.
The Colts have two tough games. They host Kansas City and Tennessee in Weeks 3-5 before traveling to Denver for Thursday Night Football. Then, starting in Week 10, the Colts travel to Las Vegas to host Philadelphia and Pittsburgh before traveling to Dallas before the bye week.
If Indianapolis wins one of those games, they will push their total to 10 wins because the Colts will be favorites in every other matchup on their schedule. Every win other than that is gravy. 10 or more wins should also lead the division as the Titans take a clear step back from last year’s team.
Wentz finished 16th in passing yards last season, and Ryan will likely repeat that volume. Simply put, Ryan will be better at it. However, Wentz only had 3,563 yards despite a respectable yards-per-attempt mark. The addition of Pierce won’t be enough for Ryan to generate the 348 passing yards needed to hit the rushing yards.
Taylor will continue to serve the ball regularly. The only way he won’t clear that low is if he gets seriously injured. The Colts still have one of the best offensive lines in football, a team that wants to run and a quarterback that has only been beaten twice by an elite rushing attack since entering the league.
The last two props are intertwined. There’s no reason we’d expect Okereke to give up nearly 20 tackles outside of injury, given his role as a tamper on downfield.
Leonard could climb to more than 137.5 tackles, but he finished with 121, 132 and 122 over the past three seasons. We’re just playing a recent production for Leonardo. He also missed at least one game every year. Betting on perfect health for him just doesn’t make sense with the information we have.
Indianapolis Colts record prediction 2022: Odds, props, and picks
